Iran and Saudi Arabia can get into proxy in Afghanistan: CSS Current Affairs
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia sees Iran as its number one security threat. This perception is reinforced by the conviction that the kingdom is losing its greatest asset: Washington, which it believes no longer cares about the Middle East. As a result, Riyadh is eager to project power and assert itself while frustrating Iran. For its part, Tehran’s main security concern lies in the weakening and collapse of its neighbors’ central authorities, which leaves a vacuum in which terrorist groups can operate and expand freely. Consequently, Tehran sees Afghanistan as its top priority and wants to make sure that ISIS doesn’t gain a proper foothold there.
It’s no secret that Washington no longer has the leverage it once had over the Saudi establishment. For its part, Riyadh’s security calculations are driven by a willingness to assert itself as a force to be reckoned with. Today, Saudi Arabia’s hopes of a decisive victory in Yemen seem increasingly unrealistic. Afghanistan may thus become the new battleground, where Riyadh thinks it can hit multiple targets on its agenda at a lower cost. Riyadh is continuing its funding and support for various groups in Afghanistan and expects to see results. It can ask them to frustrate NATO efforts to strengthen the central authority and stop militias from gaining ground. Far from the field, Riyadh has also started to attend multilateral diplomatic sessions on the future of Afghanistan.
A decade and a half after the NATO intervention in Afghanistan, the possibility of a Saudi-Iranian proxy war in the country adds a new layer and threat to an already complex and volatile situation. The United States and its NATO allies must begin to identify and address the key areas where Tehran and Riyadh’s competition can destabilize the country. They must also be aware that the window of opportunity for any discussion between the two countries is closing fast. Iranian presidential elections are approaching, and the country’s moderates who are still willing to engage with Riyadh are under pressure from domestic factions. While Riyadh is at the table and Tehran is still willing, the United States and its NATO partners must push the two sides to begin to talk before it’s too late.
Courtesy: Foreign Policy
Tag:Afghanistan, CSS, Iran, MIddle East, PACE, PMS, Proxy, Saudi Arabia, Shia, Sunni